Advance Longmont Summit: Growth could slow as headwinds converge

LONGMONT — While 2024 might not herald an era of significant economic decline in Longmont and its surrounding communities, experts said Tuesday during the Advance Longmont Summit that growth is likely to slow in comparison to the post-pandemic rebound of the last several years. 

“I don’t think that right now…we’re at a risk for recession, but we’re not going gangbusters,” Colorado Futures Center economist and executive director Phyllis Resnick said during a forecast given at the Longmont Economic Development Partnership’s annual gathering at the Longmont Museum. “… Our growth is solid but modest.”

In Longmont, particularly in key industries such as aerospace, food and beverage, bioscience and computer hardware and software, “we still have relative low unemployment and our employment is still growing,” LEDP executive director Erin Fosdick said, noting that the city’s five-year employment growth rate is a fairly sustainable 3%.

More than 50% of people who live in Boulder, Broomfield and Larimer counties have at least a bachelor’s degree, according to Metro Denver Economic Development Corp. chief Meredith Moon. 

That’s a good thing for the region’s economy in the sense that companies are able to bring high-paying, high-skilled jobs to the area. The downside, however, comes in the form of a seemingly worsening affordability crisis, particularly for lower income workers whose jobs support the region’s key industries. 

“Pursuing higher education if at all possible is beneficial for your career trajectory and for the state’s economic health as a whole,” Moon said, but “we need to be sure that everyone can thrive in our state and our region.”

Some of the fastest job growth in and around Longmont, she said, is occurring in the leisure and hospitality space, a sector that often pays lower wages. 

Over the past year or so, the number of home sales have been down in Longmont, Fosdick said, likely due in large part to higher interest rates. Median prices remain up but are increasing more slowly than in years past. 

“Housing is something we hear a lot about from our employers and employees that really impacts our ability to attract and retain jobs,” she said. In LEDP surveys, Longmont business leaders have indicated that the “availability of affordable housing is our biggest disadvantage.”

Those leaders noted that while supply-chain “issues are easing up a bit” since the height of COVID-19 era, access to skilled labor is getting tougher. Part of the reason for that relates to would-be employees opting not to move to the region because they can’t afford housing. 

As Longmont’s population ages — birth rates and school enrollments are down, while “the fastest population growth is in 60-plus,” according to Moon — the city will rely more on in-migration to fill jobs, many of which require specialized skills or degrees. Somewhat reassuringly, Moon said, “a lot of net in-migrants to the state have come with an education.”