Migration, not births, drives area’s population

LOVELAND — Colorado and Northern Colorado will continue to grow over the coming years, but it won’t be because of births. Rather, in-migration will be the primary driver of population growth, according to Elizabeth Garner, Colorado’s state demographer.

Garner addressed the BizWest Northern Colorado Real Estate Summit held at the Embassy Suites by Hilton in Loveland on Tuesday.

“We’re seeing a significant slowdown in growth,” she said, meaning that the state will need to compete vigorously to continue to attract the best and brightest — which has been the case over the past several years.

SPONSORED CONTENT

Commercial Solar is a big investment, but not an overwhelming one

Solar offers a significant economic benefit for commercial property owners while also positively impacting the environment and offering a path to compliance for new municipal requirements like Energize Denver. A local, experienced solar installer will help you navigate the complexities of commercial solar to achieve financial success for your project.

Most of the population growth in the state has been along the Interstate 25 corridor, with Northern Colorado driving much of that, she said. About a third of the state’s counties are in decline, she said.

Garner noted that there are two components to population growth or decline — births minus deaths and in-migration versus out-migration.

While it seems like growth in Colorado is record-setting, the 1990s actually had faster growth, she said. The state has experienced downward pressure on births since 2007. The number of babies born now is actually below the replacement rate, meaning migration into the state is playing a larger role in growth.

With fewer births, household sizes (and the need for larger homes) will largely decline, she said.

In the region, Larimer County has seen “downward pressure” on in-migration, but Weld has seen the opposite. Weld County has also seen more natural growth through births than Larimer County. Boulder County has seen an even steeper decline in births, which to a large extent is driven by housing prices. “That’s what happens when people can’t afford to live there,” Garner said.

Garner said Weld’s relative increase in births and in-migration has much to do with affordability. Young families can afford to live there, given wages and housing prices, she said. And it feeds on itself: “Young people are attracted to other young people, who then create even younger people,” she said.

The state as a whole is attracting 170,000 to 210,000 people a year but also loses 80,000 to 90,000, she said.

She noted a “huge relationship” between Larimer and Weld. The biggest population donor county to Larimer is Weld, and vice versa, she said.

Jobs drive migration within the state and into the state. “We are forecasting slower job growth into the future, and we are also forecasting slower migration. We’ll see a movement of people out of the labor force (as they age) but not leaving the state,” she said.

Garner examined commuting patterns, because that information helps to determine where people want to live and buy property.

She said 46,000 people commute into Larimer daily, and 54,000 commute out. For Weld, 41,000 commute in and 80,000 commute out.

“If you’re involved in real estate, and you know commuting is an important factor, how does that affect your relationship with your customer. Where are the transportation corridors, the bus corridors?” she asked.

“The pattern tells you that people pick a location to live and their job is secondary.”

Housing prices are a factor. So is the ratio between incomes and prices. That ratio in Colorado and Larimer County is 4.6, 6.0 in Denver but 3.6 in Weld County and the nation as a whole. That means younger people in particular will find greater housing affordability in Weld, which explains why significantly more people commute out of the county for their jobs but choose to live in Weld.

Those in the real estate industry need to pay attention to age cohorts as they move through the population. The peak population now is 28 to 30 years old — the age when people often buy their first homes. The cohort following that peak population is smaller, which suggests that fewer first homes will be purchased in the years to come.

On the other end of the spectrum, those 65 and older is not expanding as a population cohort, and individuals of that age are not relocating at the same degree as younger populations.

Garner said the population trends also have an impact on the workforce. “We are seeing older workers staying in the workforce longer. And thank God. We’d be seeing even more difficulty filling jobs without that,” she said.