Looking ahead to 2025 in Northern Colorado

For the 15th anniversary issue of the Northern Colorado Business Report, I was asked to comment briefly on my vision of Northern Colorado in 2025. Here are some thoughts beyond that small bit of wisdom.

• The Northern Colorado economy will feel more prosperous in 2025 than it does today, but not as prosperous as we felt in 2005.
• Water supply will be a prominent and continuous problem as residential and industrial demands expand for an increasingly scarce resource.
• A major unknown, and potentially negative, development is uranium mining. Establishment of the industry as a major driver of our economy and provider of primary jobs has the potential to create a major problem with our increasingly scarce water supply. Increasing natural gas production may also contribute to this potential groundwater pollution, and change our image as a desirable place to live.
• Barring such a major negative image change, we will still be receiving top 10 designations in categories such as best places to live or retire.
• Population growth will average 1.75 percent per year so that by 2025 the region will have 800,000 residents, maybe more if industrial development is very strong and we maintain our desirable image.
• Even though food prices will be higher as resource costs increase, our economy will be less oriented toward agriculture as industrial, commercial and residential development reduces the amount of open space and infringes on flat agricultural land.
• Industrial development will be mostly smaller firms, 150 employees or less. Engineering science, oriented toward clean energy, will dominate, although high-tech will be very evident. High-tech service, such as mapping and GIS applications for the private and public sectors, will be a significant stimulant to our economy. Colorado State University and entrepreneurs will be major suppliers of financing and employees for these sectors.
• Between now and 2025 we will be on the local end of a U.S. economic recovery, starting in 2013 and continuing until 2018-19. This will include a housing construction recovery. There will be another serious recession in the early 2020s but by 2025 we will again be in recovery. These dates may vary, but the general economic cycle will repeat itself, affecting primarily the U.S. economy but with smaller, secondary impacts on the Northern Colorado economy.
• Our economy will have a greater international presence as CSU and derivative industries extend their reach into world markets.

I-25, U.S. 85 corridors grow

• Interstate 25 will be six lanes or more and the surrounding areas will be filled in completely to Denver with commercial and industrial development employing workers who will live both east and west of I-25; cheaper, denser housing to the east and more expensive, larger lot homes to the west.
• The Fort Collins-Loveland-Greeley triangle will be mostly filled in with Windsor the center of activity. Most of the area west of I-25 from Fort Collins to Boulder will be solid higher-end residential dominated by commercial and residential services and some manufacturing concentrations.
• Growth along U.S. Highway 85 toward Denver International Airport will look like I-25 today. Industrial development along U.S. 85 will be oriented toward manufacturing products that can be air-shipped to international markets.
• There will be rapid transit along the I-25 median to Denver with a spur to Greeley, or there may be rail service using existing tracks to Union Station. This service may not quite be completed by 2025. A four-lane tollway from Wellington to Pueblo east of U.S. 85 may be under construction. There will be rapid transit from Denver to the Eisenhower Tunnel, probably along the median of Interstate 70, and maybe to Frisco and Vail.
• The alternative energy industry will be a much more dominant part of our economy. Solar power will be an integral part of residential building. A larger part of our electricity needs will come from wind energy farms on the eastern plains. Natural gas will be a big part of national and local electricity generation and a dominant fuel for our automobiles in the form of compressed natural gas or some less dangerous derivative.
• The health-care and retirement industries will be a much bigger part of our economy as we maintain our excellent quality of life and the baby boomers seek out our excellent health care. The social scene will be much more oriented toward our retired population as will a greater part of the services sector.
• Our economic development organizations will be integrated and cooperating by 2025, speaking with one voice for the betterment of our economy.

So, our economy will be much the same in 2025, except 40 percent bigger, and yet different as we respond to changing demographics and newer, cheaper technology, especially in the energy sector. I’ll be 83 and may still be writing a column for NCBR, restoring and drag-racing GTOs, and occasionally tipping a microbrew.

SPONSORED CONTENT

Business Cares: May 2024

As Mental Health Awareness Month unfolds in Colorado, it serves as a reminder of the collective responsibility to prioritize mental well-being.

John W. Green is a regional economist who compiles the Northern Colorado Business Report’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators. He can be reached at jwgreen@frii.com.