Greeley retail study: West side poised for growth

GREELEY — A report commissioned by the city of Greeley paints its west side as a high-potential area for future shopping districts.

The report, authored by the city’s Department of Economic Health and Housing, is an update on the area’s current conditions for retail options. The Greeley City Council will hear a presentation on the report at its next workshop session Tuesday night.

Weld County is expected to exceed Larimer County’s growth by 2025, according to state projections cited by the study, and will have grown by eight times its population in 1970 as soon as 2047. The report cites this growth mainly due to the large influx of people expected to move to the Front Range in the future, along with the large amount of available land near I-25.

Proximity to the highway is one of the reasons why Greeley’s west side is expected to be where most newcomers intend to settle. The U.S. Census estimates the areas west of 23rd Avenue could grow as much as 142 percent in population through 2023, and Census tracts in the west side of town have an average household income well above $101,700.

Meanwhile, the city’s east side is projected to have flat growth or lose residents, and many of its Census tracts have average household incomes ranging between $14,600 and $58,200.

The Centerplace Area district currently dominates the city’s shopping scene, pulling in just over $9 million in retail sales tax revenue in 2018. The next highest sales tax figure was the 10th Street Corridor, which pulled in $3,403,587, followed by the Greeley Mall with $2,743,933 and the Downtown Development District with $2,134,153.

Northgate Village and St. Michaels, two districts on the west side of the city, along with the Promontory district near Highway 34 and Highway 257, were given “A” grades for development opportunity by the report due to their proximity to major employers and wealth of available land nearby for local housing growth.

The report found that housing permits issued in the city have recovered since going nearly flat in the years following the 2008 financial crisis, but not to the extent that it can meet the city’s current or future housing needs. The city’s current housing strategy is targeting 2,213 single-family homes and 2,509 multi-family units by 2024.

Competition for space in Greeley is fierce, the report says. CoStar Realty Information Inc., a commercial real estate analysis company, currently places Greeley’s vacancy rate at below 2 percent and rent per square foot at $15.50, while projecting a continuing decline in vacancies and rent rates hitting $16 per square foot by 2022. 

The report suggests Greeley should take a more aggressive approach toward connecting with retailers by building a network of brokers in Northern Colorado and Denver, along with considering hiring a retail consulting firm to identify unfilled gaps in the local retail market.

A 2017 market outlook report cited by the study shows high consumer demand for furniture stores, electronics stores, groceries, gasoline stations, clothing stores, sporting goods outlets, restaurants and bars far outpaced market supply in the area.

Read the full report: