Colorado officials revise 2015 job growth estimates downward

State of Colorado officials on Wednesday revised downward the number of jobs added during the fourth quarter of 2015 by 10,700 versus original estimates.

The new figures mean the state still added 61,500 nonfarm payroll jobs from the end of 2014 to the end of 2015, an increase of 2.5 percent. But with the more-precise fourth-quarter numbers factored in, adjusted estimates through April of this year now show the job-growth rate in the state dipping to 2.3 percent versus 12 months earlier.

Every month, the state releases nonfarm payroll jobs estimates based on surveys of business establishments. But data from quarterly unemployment insurance reports that Colorado employers are required to file with the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment give the state a more-accurate look at the data and the basis for expected revisions once final 2015 numbers are tallied early next year through the state’s benchmarking process.

Locally, the Greeley Metropolitan Statistical Area, also defined as Weld County, was hit hardest by the latest revisions. The new numbers show Weld’s job total at the end of December to be 99,200, about 1,700 fewer than previously estimated. That means that for the year, Weld lost about 2,400 jobs in 2015, a decline of roughly 2.3 percent as the oil and gas industry suffered through a severe downturn in commodity prices and shed workers.

The mining and logging sector, which includes oil and gas, in fact saw its own December job figures in Colorado revised downward by 1,900, or 6.5 percent, from original estimates. That means the sector shed about 8,700, or 24.2 percent of its jobs, in 2015. The construction sector also saw a significant downward revision in the number of December jobs, 2,400 fewer than originally estimated.

As for Boulder and Larimer counties, the revisions look a little rosier. The number of jobs in Boulder County at the end of 2015 is expected to be revised upward by about 700, boosting the overall growth rate in 2015 to 2.2 percent. Larimer is expected to see a minor downward adjustment of about 200 jobs for the fourth quarter of 2015, meaning that for the year, the county will still have seen 4 percent job growth.

Other sectors expected to see downward revisions for the fourth quarter of 2015 include leisure and hospitality, manufacturing and financial activities. Professional and business services, transportation and utilities, and government are expected to see upward revisions.

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