NCAR Sun4Cast system aims to aid utilities in their solar usage

BOULDER — The National Center for Atmospheric Research said on Tuesday that it is making its Sun4Cast system available to utilities and private forecasting companies.

The system improves predictions of clouds and other conditions, allowing utilities a better idea of when to draw energy from solar arrays connected to their electrical grids.

After testing Sun4Cast at multiple sites, the research team has determined that it can be up to 50 percent more accurate than current solar power forecasts. This improved accuracy will enable utilities to deploy solar energy more reliably and inexpensively, reducing the need to purchase energy on the spot market.

NCAR economist Jeffrey Lazo said utilities across the United States may be able to save an estimated $455 million through 2040 as they use more solar energy.

The Sun4Cast system has been in development for three years by NCAR in collaboration with government labs, universities including Colorado State University, utilities including Xcel Energy and commercial firms across the country. The project is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative.

“This type of research and development is important because it contributes to the reduction in costs for solar and wind energy and makes it easier for utilities to integrate renewables into the electrical grid,” said William Mahoney, deputy director of NCAR’s Research Applications Laboratory. “When it comes to balancing demand for power with supply, it’s vital to be able to predict sources of energy as accurately as possible.”

Xcel Energy is beginning to use the system to forecast conditions at several of its main solar facilities.

“Our previous experience with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in developing a wind-forecasting system has saved millions of dollars and has been highly beneficial for our customers,” said Drake Bartlett, senior trading analyst for Xcel Energy in Colorado. “It is our sincere hope and belief that we will see positive atmospheric forecasting results for predicting solar generation as well, again to the benefit of our Xcel Energy customers.”

Sun4Cast provides “nowcasts” of power production for solar facilities at 15-minute intervals, enabling utilities to anticipate the amount of available solar energy. In addition, forecasts extend out to 72 hours, allowing utility officials to make decisions in advance for balancing solar with other sources of energy.

In addition to aiding the solar power industry, the work can also improve weather forecasting in general because of improved cloud prediction.

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