Homebuyers still scrambling as demand outpaces supply

Residential real estate sales in Larimer and Weld counties remain at record-setting levels with 1,072 closed sales in October, representing a 1.2 percent decrease from last year but the median selling price is up 8 percent to $270,000.

For the year to date, sales are up 9.1 percent to 10,820 homes and the median price is up 13.8 percent to $276,000. A breakdown by areas is in the accompanying chart.

Last year was a new record for sales, totaling 11,554 homes at a median price of $244,950 for a total volume of $3.172 billion. We are currently on a pace for 2015 total home sales of 12,600 with a median price of $280,000 and total volume of $3.7 billion, all new records.

Last year, the selling price averaged 99.05 percent of asking price. As indicative of the hot market we have been experiencing, this year that figure is up to 99.74 percent.

Another marker is days to offer. Five years ago, this figure was 82 days. Last year it had dropped to 40 days, and this year to date it is down to just 33 days.

One trend worth noting is that more than half of the sales in October occurred in Weld County, and for the year to date, 49 percent of all sales are in Weld. Last year at this time, 44.5 percent of the sales were in Weld, and historically this figure has been around 40 percent. One reason for the increase in sales in Weld County is the lower selling price, but also, more than 50 percent of all new home construction is taking place in Weld County, whereas 10 years ago the ratio was 45 percent Weld and 55 percent Larimer.

Another item to note is the incredible shrinking market share for homes priced below $300,000. Five years ago, more than three quarters of all homes sold in Larimer County were priced at less than $300,000. Today, the market has shrunk to just 51 percent of homes priced at less than $300,000.

There is the same trend in Weld County, just not as severe. In 2010, 88 percent of all the homes sold were priced at less than $300,000. Today that figure is down to 70 percent.

It is amazing how the market has absorbed a substantial 14.8 percent increase in the median selling price and still produced an increase in sales of close to 10 percent. The demand still is outstripping the supply, with a current active inventory of 1,903 homes for sale, which is about a two-month supply. New construction still is playing catch-up, with just 1,881 new homes sold for the year to date, just 17.4 percent of total sales when we should be closer to 25 percent of sales to keep up with demand.

We don’t foresee a drop in demand and we don’t expect much of an increase in supply, so it looks like buyers are going to have to continue to scramble to find the right home at an acceptable price. Good luck with that!

Dave Pettigrew is a real estate broker at Ascent Real Estate Professionals, 155 E. Boardwalk, No. 475, Fort Collins. Contact him at FCRealtor@msn.com or 970-282-9305.

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