‘Dismal science’ brings light to readers of NCBR

Economic issues have always been an important part of the Northern Colorado Business Report‘s coverage. My reporting has evolved over the years as I have tried to keep the content relevant to the region’s economy and to impart some economic theory, knowledge and experience to the readership of NCBR.

It all started back in 1995, immediately after Chris Wood and Jeff Nuttall started the Northern Colorado Business Report with help from their partners at the Boulder County Business Report. Chris Wood called me and asked if Eric Sieverts and I could come in and talk to him. I was Chair of the Department of Economics at the University of Northern Colorado, lived in Fort Collins, and had been doing economic analysis for the Greeley/Weld County Economic Development Action Partnership, now known as Upstate Colorado. Eric was a well-known USDA expert on the use of IMPLAN, an input-output model and databases used to determine the impact of economic planning.

Chris wanted us to determine the impact of selected sectors on the Northern Colorado economy and share our findings with the readers of NCBR. We did that and the columns were well received.

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Chris’s next idea was to collect statistics on the Northern Colorado economy and use them to build an indicator of the health and rate of change of local economic conditions. This was not really Eric’s forte so I tackled it alone, with the help of several very bright economics majors at UNC. In 1997, we started quarterly publication of the Northern Colorado Index of Leading Economic Indicators. These were also well received.

The ideas kept coming. Chris suggested that we invite business leaders from throughout Northern Colorado to an Economic Forecast in January; we could even feed them lunch if they wanted to listen.

The first luncheon, sponsored by First Choice Bank and held at the Greeley Country Club, attracted about 150 participants. The annual luncheon expanded rapidly, from the county club to the UNC ballroom, then to Island Grove Exhibition Hall, back to UNC and now to the Embassy Suites-Loveland. Attendance maxed at about 650 at Island Grove and is now space-limited at about 500.

Northern Colorado business people have come to rely on the yearly forecast and the wisdom imparted by the guest speakers to do business planning for the next year.

This year, with the economy on everyone’s mind, we held a mid-year update of the annual January forecast. The inaugural event this month attracted over 100 participants and generated more questions for the panel than at any other economic forecasting event we’ve ever held.

Chris’s next idea was to have me write a monthly column on economic issues and information. The column would describe the health of and changes occurring in the Northern Colorado economy, independent of the quarterly economic indicators column which, by then, was a much-anticipated regular feature. The inaugural column appeared in January 2005 and continues to this day.

Another idea that has become an annual tradition is NCBR‘s economic roundtable where several business leaders representing major sectors in the Northern Colorado economy gather with the editorial staff late in the year and talk about the year’s results and outlook ahead. A partial transcript of the discussion is printed in the issue before the Economic Forecast luncheon. Similar roundtables have also dealt with issues of specific importance, such as the collapse of the finance system in 2008 or, most recently, possible effects of federal health care reform.

Over the years, I have received a great many comments from NCBR readers, some questioning my analysis, some looking for more information, some thanking me for an explanation of a particular issue. I have learned much from the NCBR readership and look forward to a few more years of a productive relationship.

John W. Green, Ph.D., is a regional economist, retired from both teaching and the USDA, who divides his time between consulting and restoring classic GTOs.