Retail growth ahead, more upscale shoppers

LONGMONT – At the new Harvest Junction Shopping Center in Longmont, PETCO Manager Paula Meyers prepares for another busy day among the dogs, cats and human shoppers.

“We’re over our budget and doing very well,´ said Meyers of PETCO’s newest location. “Business has been really good.”

Meyers added that with every new store that opens at Harvest Junction, business increases for all the others nearby – including the PETCO store.

“We’re looking forward to the growth,” she said.

Growth seems to be the key word for Longmont’s retail community, which is expected to expand by nearly 1 million square feet of retail space over the next two years.

In addition, development at Larkridge, The Northlands and Orchard Town Center will result in an additional several million square feet of new retail space, all at a short distance of only 17 miles from the city limits.
These statistics are part of a new study just released by the city of Longmont.

The Longmont Retail Opportunities Study, conducted from last October through April, surveyed households within the retail trade areas. It looked at taxable retail sales, expenditure patterns, retail distributions, potentials and opportunities.

One portion of the study evaluated the negative impact of more-modern retailers on Longmont’s older retail centers, with particular emphasis on the future of Twin Peaks Mall.

But according to Longmont City Manager Gordon Pedrow, this competition doesn’t necessarily mean that Twin Peaks will be forced to pack up and leave.

“Our retail environment is dynamic and competitive, and it would be premature to say that Twin Peaks would go away,” Pedrow said. “Competition means that existing retailers have to look for opportunities to see that they are not negatively impacted by this growth.”

Nevertheless, the study specifically indicates that the potential loss of major retail anchors such as J. C. Penney or the United Artists Theaters could prove disastrous for the future survival of Twin Peaks.

J. C. Penney Co. Inc. said it will move from Twin Peaks Mall to a larger building across the street previously occupied by ShopKo. The move is scheduled to take place in October, and is part of a companywide effort to move from malls to standalone buildings.

Pedrow said that, in any case, the mall’s owners would be the ones to make the final decision concerning its future.

Revitalization of Longmont’s downtown area was addressed in the study as well, with the recommendation that the town continue to pursue the property development and rehabilitation activities, which have been underway since the establishment of the Longmont Downtown Development Authority (LDDA) in 1982.

The good news for downtown Longmont is that its retails sales have increased over the last three years, from $18.8 million in 2003 to $24.2 million in 2005.

Upscale stores recommended

Longmont accounts for 73 percent of all household growth within Boulder County, indicating the emergence of a younger and more affluent population. The largest percentage of these households is within the spending age brackets of 35 to 55 years old – prime customers for retail markets, particularly more upscale ones.

“The survey portion indicates that Longmont residents would like to have a larger variety of upscale apparel and furnishings stores, and this will continue to be looked at,” Pedrow said.

Among other suggestions, the study recommends that the city establish an incentive policy geared towards potential retailers.

“We don’t at this point have a matrix for this established yet,” Pedrow said. The city council plans to look at implementing incentive options within the next couple of months.

“If there’s an opportunity to partner with an appropriate retail establishment prior to the policy, there will be an incentives consideration made and put to the council,” he added.

Other recommendations included expanding LDDA funding to address the need for downtown marketing and development, as well as a community profile containing economic and demographic data, which could be used to promote Longmont to retailers and developers.

Retail being studied

The Longmont Retail Opportunities Study was conducted by Economic and Planning Systems, a consulting firm based in Denver. According to company associate Joshua Birks, retail studies like Longmont’s are being utilized more than ever throughout Colorado’s Front Range. Currently the company is doing a similar study for Fort Collins, and has just completed one for Boulder.

Birks said this type of study is beneficial not only for city government, but for the business and development sector as well, both by identifying a city’s strengths and economic challenges, and by pointing out development opportunities.

“In the economic cycle we’re emerging from, retail is certainly a concern because it drives a city’s annual revenue,” Birks said. “And there’s been greater concern in the northern Front Range area, because places like Longmont and Fort Collins are faced with competition outside the boundaries.”

Birks said that the retail demographic of Boulder County has shifted due to the emergence of Loveland, Louisville and Superior as prime retail destinations.

This in turn has affected the focus – and added to the importance – of Front Range retail studies.

“Whereas in the past it has been more a question of how does regional retail fit in our communities, now it’s a question of how do communities encourage it to stay,” Birks said.

Retail reconnaissance

Seven key findings of a retail opportunity study conducted for the city of Longmont by Denver-based Economic
& Planning Systems Inc.:

_ Longmont is becoming younger, more affluent and accounts for 73 percent of all household growth in Boulder County.

_ Growth is stimulating demand for new retail stores and formats.

_ Top two unmet potential uses are a theater complex
and natural foods grocer.

_ 41 percent of Longmont residents’ expenditures are made outside city limits.

_ Lifestyle apparel and home furnishings tenants are bypassing Longmont.

* New regional retail centers in city will negatively impact Twin Peaks Mall and Plaza.

* Downtown Longmont is growing and successful dining, entertainment and specialty retail district.

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