Retail trends similar in Larimer, Weld counties

Entrepreneurs thrive in expanding economies such as we have in Northern Colorado. As we look around us, many of these entrepreneurs are attracted to the building sector or to sectors that support the construction industry. We have plenty of opportunities for them to plant and grow their new businesses.

We especially appreciate those entrepreneurs that start new manufacturing facilities or service businesses related to technology since it is widely believed that these are “clean” jobs paying high salaries and especially beneficial to the local economy. These might be “spin-off” entrepreneurs from the several thousand high-tech layoffs since 2001. Many of these highly skilled persons have started new businesses.

An often-overlooked group of entrepreneurs are those who start retail businesses to service the new residents to Northern Colorado, the employees who move here for the new jobs we create or our own children who we nurture and educate to fill those jobs. (And let’s not forget those retired souls who move here to enjoy the climate and recreational opportunities that we are responsible for preserving, the health-care facilities we are expanding and the retail spending outlets we provide.)

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Retail entrepreneurs start new businesses for many reasons, but they all evaluate the risk of their business failing and the alternatives that they face to support their family and their lifestyle.

As Northern Colorado has grown, many national chains have chosen to enter our market or increase the number of outlets they have in our economy. New outlet malls, lifestyle centers, business services and other retail vendors have grouped together in concentrations developed by yet other entrepreneurs who are investing in the Northern Colorado economy. The retailers occupying these centers of shopping activity must obtain vendor licenses from the State of Colorado.

My latest quarterly column (Business Report, Sept. 30) presents a graph showing the new sales tax accounts issued to retail vendors in Northern Colorado. It shows steady growth from 1992 through 2002 and then significant decline after that.

The graph below this column shows the number of these licenses granted by the state each year since January 1991 to entrepreneurs in Larimer and Weld Counties.

The graph shows that new sales tax accounts opened in Larimer County were significantly greater, and showed different annual patterns, than those in Weld County from 1991 through 2000. Beginning in 2001, however, the numbers of licenses issued in the two counties are very similar, especially in 2004. There is divergence again in 2005 as the Interstate 25 and U.S. Highway 34 interchange develops.

Interestingly, the trend line in both counties has a similar shape, growing at almost the same rate (Weld County is slightly faster since they’re growing closer together.), peaking at the same time, and declining at roughly the same rate. The differences between the two counties that make up the Northern Colorado economy are decreasing.

The facts are accumulating. The two counties in our Northern Colorado economy are becoming more similar. Increasingly, we must think of Northern Colorado as a unified, single economy, not as two counties or two cities competing for new developments and manufacturing facilities.

John W. Green is a regional economist who compiles The Northern Colorado Business Report’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators. Green, a Fort Collins resident, was previously chairman of the University of Northern Colorado economics department.