Out-of-town dollars impact retail sales trends

The topic this month is retail sales. We will examine and compare total and per capita retail sales in Colorado, Northern Colorado, Larimer and Weld counties. Recall from my earlier columns that retail sales are a demonstration of the purchasing power of new employees, residential and commercial construction, retiree relocations and various types of visitors.
Total retail sales in Colorado in 1987 were $37.7 billion, increasing to $114 billion in 2004 – tripling in 17 years. Northern Colorado total retail sales in 1987 were $2.7 billion, increasing to $10.5 billion in 2004, 3.9 times greater over the period. Larimer County total retails sales were 60 percent of Northern Colorado retail sales in 1987, dropping to 57 percent by 2004. This decrease occurred in spite of the outlet mall development in Larimer County at the Interstate 25 and U.S. Highway 34 interchange. Northern Colorado retail sales were 7.3 percent of Colorado retail sales in 1987, increasing to 9.2 percent in 2004.
Per capita retail sales are more interesting, but can also be deceptive. Colorado retail sales per capita include the purchasing power of tourists at our ski resorts and mountain retreats. Per capita retail sales in Larimer County include the out-of-county attraction of the regional mall at the Highway 34 interchange. Nevertheless, the chart below depicts annual per capita retail sales from 1987 to 2004 for Colorado, Northern Colorado, Larimer and Weld counties.
Annual per capita retail sales in Colorado increased from $12,000 in 1987 to $24,000 in 2004. Per capita retail sales for Colorado are higher than in Northern Colorado or Larimer and Weld counties. That difference reflects the expensive tourist dollars spent in Colorado’s high country and demonstrating the effect that convention, entertainment (i.e., Greeley Stampede, The Ranch), or tourist dollars might have on retail sales in Northern Colorado.
Annual per capita retail sales for Northern Colorado, Larimer and Weld counties were all in the $8,000 to 9,000 range in 1987. By 2004, Larimer County per capita retail sales had climbed to $21,000, followed by Northern Colorado at $20,100 and Weld County at $19,000.
Per capita retail sales peaked in Colorado in 2000, followed by Larimer County and Northern Colorado in 2001 and Weld County in 2002. Weld County’s decrease from its peak was short and shallow, bouncing back strongly in 2004. Colorado’s recovery in 2004 was also very strong. Larimer County’s increase was much weaker.
The new Shops at Centerra lifestyle center and other developments at the Highway 34 interchange will further increase per capita retail sales in Larimer County and Northern Colorado. Downtown development will attract more consumers to Greeley and Poudre River development near downtown Fort Collins will increase consumer purchases in that area.
The regional health center development will also create more retail sales. Altogether, the future looks bright for the retail sector in Northern Colorado.

John W. Green is a regional economist who compiles The Northern Colorado Business Report’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators. Green, a Fort Collins resident, was previously chairman of the University of Northern Colorado economics department.

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