Education  November 22, 2013

Studies may enable longer-term heat-wave forecasts

A map of air flow a few miles above ground level in the Northern Hemisphere shows the type of wavenumber-5 pattern associated with U.S. drought. This pattern includes alternating troughs (blue contours) and ridges (red contours), with an “H” symbol for high pressure shown at the center of each of the five ridges. High pressure tends to cause sinking air and suppresses precipitation, which can allow a heat wave to develop and intensify over land areas. Courtesy University Center for Atmospheric Research
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BOULDER — Scientists have fingerprinted a distinctive atmospheric wave pattern high above the Northern Hemisphere that can foreshadow the emergence of summertime heat waves in the United States more than two weeks in advance.

The new research, led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, potentially could enable forecasts of the likelihood of U.S. heat waves 15 to 20 days out, giving society more time to prepare for these often-deadly events.

The research team discerned the pattern by analyzing a 12,000-year simulation of the atmosphere over the Northern Hemisphere. During those times when a distinctive “wavenumber-5” pattern emerged, a major…

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