Have we dodged the H1N1 pandemic bullet?

Jon Surbeck, Weld County’s director of public health preparedness, recalls the anxiety and stress he felt faced with an oncoming flu pandemic and the dribbling number of doses of vaccine that started arriving last fall.

The pandemic of H1N1 influenza, otherwise known as swine flu, was erupting around the world, launched out of Mexico in April 2009. Pharmaceutical manufacturers were struggling to make the millions of doses of vaccine needed to cope with the outbreak, but production delays were hampering getting it to places like Northern Colorado.

Clinics were set up to vaccinate the most vulnerable first – pregnant women, children and people with underlying health problems – and in those chaotic early days there never seemed to be enough vaccine to go around.

“It was a very stressful campaign in terms of being asked to develop a certain response,” Surbeck remembers. “We had to be very prudent to make sure that what we didn’t cause a stampede.”

The number of H1N1-diagnosed cases zoomed in the fall and peaked in mid-October, but by then the vaccine was starting to arrive in sufficient amounts for clinics spread across Northern Colorado to handle the demand.

And then a funny thing started to happen. Well, not funny for those who suffered through the flu and certainly not for those who died from it. But the steamrolling pandemic that many feared could kill unimaginable numbers proved to be … not that bad.

As of March 19, Weld County had recorded no deaths from the flu. Larimer County counted three deaths – all people in their 50s – and one that looked like it was caused by the flu. “I don’t think we’ll ever know about that one,´ said Adrienne LeBailly, M.D., Larimer County Department of Health and Environment. “We were just happy we had no pediatric deaths.”

LeBailly, who was recently honored by the McKee Medical Center Foundation for helping guide the H1N1 response in Larimer County, said the county has administered 18,000 vaccinations and is still giving shots, but added “the demand has dropped pretty significantly from January on.”

Still, she’s not yet ready to say the danger has passed. “All you have to do is declare it’s over and then…” she said. “We’re hopeful there won’t be a recurrence, but flu season can actually go into May.”

Weld County, which ultimately distributed well over 200,000 H1N1 vaccine doses, administered about 16,000 shots, about 435 of those in February, said Surbeck, who also acknowledged that the risk is not yet over. “We’ll be continuing our operations at least through March and April.”

New cases dwindling

New H1N1 cases in Colorado have been dwindling since January, and the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment reported no new cases for two weeks in February and in early March.

The state health department reported 60 flu-related hospitalizations in Larimer County through March 6, with 15 definitely attributed to H1N1. There were 108 such hospitalizations in Weld County, with 37 chalked up to H1N1.

Younger people in general seemed to be most affected by H1N1, and the national Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta reported on March 12 that it had received reports of 329 laboratory-confirmed pediatric deaths with 277 of those due to H1N1 since April 2009.

Colorado has had 12 pediatric flu deaths this season compared to seven last year and two the year before, according to state health department spokeswoman Joni Reynolds. She said the state has so far distributed 1.615 million H1N1 vaccine doses.

Statewide through March 6, Colorado reported a total of 69 flu deaths, 57 among adults; 84 percent of all who died had underlying health conditions.

So a major pandemic in 2009-10 did not materialize and hope continues that it won’t. But the mild pandemic did offer some lessons to health officials.

LeBailly said the pharmaceutical industry’s reliance on growing vaccine in chicken eggs proved to be unreliable and she predicts the method will be used less in the future. “It was really almost a miracle that we got (the vaccine) out when the outbreak was peaking,” she said.

Surbeck looks back on the experience “as a blessing and a gift.”

“It was the first time in most people’s lifetimes that they saw a pandemic that could have been really devastating,” he said. “I think it was a wake-up call for us, a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to really look at our preparedness and response plans.”  

Steve Porter covers health care for the Northern Colorado Business Report. He can be reached at 970-221-5400, ext. 225, or at sporter@ncbr.com.

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