If fewer legal immigrants allowed in, could Colorado?s recovery be hurt?

More Colorado jobs, as many as 43,000, could be created in 2005, economic experts from around the state predict.

As those jobs do appear, it will boost the size of the state?s labor force as more people start to compete for work again, many re-entering the ranks of job-seekers after frustrating months of sitting on the sidelines, watching their unemployment benefits expire.

But there?s a worrisome twist in the numbers that emerged from the annual Colorado Business Economic Outlook organized by the Business Research Division at the University of Colorado?s Leeds School of Business.

It?s well recognized that Colorado?s economic boom in the ?90s was fueled by a very strong population migration here. Census data shows that from 1995 to 2005, nearly 60 percent of population growth came from net migration (people moving in vs. moving out), with the rest coming from natural increase, or births minus deaths. Net migration peaked at 82,500 in 2000.
Not only did Coloradans compete against other residents for work, but from a slew of new job seekers from around the country and the world.

The recession and a sudden scarcity of Colorado jobs changed that picture. Word got out, and fewer newcomers arrived here. Next year, most of our population growth is expected from births, not transplants from other states. Population here will reach 4.69 million, a 1.2 percent increase.

Net migration is forecast to increase by about 20,000. But the gain will be due largely to international immigrants, from many countries but certainly with a high percentage coming from Mexico.

?If you take immigration out of the number, then our net migration actually could be zero,? agrees Gary Horvath, with CU?s Business Research Division.

State demographers, speaking at a session during the CU Economic Forecast, say they?ve been pouring over immigration figures from the Census Bureau and believe they could be seeing a disturbing trend like that recently reported on by Business Week.

The magazine?s story, ?Keeping Out the Wrong People,? reports that because of tighter visa rules from Sept. 11, ?thousands of foreigners who are trying to get into the country to study and work have been caught in a thicket of new rules and restrictions.?

In 2003, the number of immigrants granted a legal visa into the United States fell 34 percent to 705,827, the government said.

Colorado is not immune, and as the state tries to get some steam behind its improving economy, fewer immigrants ? especially those with technical skills and students seeking advanced training ? could hurt businesses. Business Week also reports ?the U.S.?s inability to sort out trustworthy workers from security threats could accelerate the transfer of jobs overseas.?

One problem is the difficulty tracking legal vs. illegal immigrant numbers, say Richard Lin and Jim Westkott, both demographers with the Colorado Division of Local Government. Their initial estimate is that about half of the 20,000 international net migration will be legal, while the other 10,000 could be undocumented workers.

It?s obvious, demographers say, that many immigrants become laborers, critical workers for housing construction as well as restaurants, hospitality and other trades.
But immigrants also move here from Russia, India, China and countries like the Philippines and Vietnam. Many are highly skilled or enroll in universities to better compete for higher-paying professional and technical jobs.

State experts believe legal immigration would be higher if it wasn?t for visa roadblocks. Many foreigners proficient in science and math, including those with research positions, are stuck in a red tape nightmare.

A majority of Colorado?s foreign-born residents, about 88 percent, live on the Front Range, and demographers say of the 800,000 new jobs in the boom ?90s, 25 percent were filled by immigrants.

At the same time, the state?s overall per capita income rose, indicating that immigration allowed other Coloradans to take higher-paying jobs while also helping keep inflation in check. Higher productivity and low absentee rates for immigrants also were a plus for companies.
As Colorado?s economy rebounds, foreign-born workers will continue to have a major impact. As they graduate from universities, they?ll compete in the sector where the biggest slice of new jobs are forecast ? professional and business services. Nearly 15,000 new jobs could come there in 2005.

The category includes legal services, employment firms, waste management and remediation, nurses and technicians, but also the much-watched category of computer systems design positions.

In the midst of the hand-wringing about tech companies shipping programming and software jobs overseas to low-cost foreign workers, less concern has been aired about cutting off foreigners critical to technology research.

Without them, can our economic recovery be as robust as economists hope?

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