State demographer: Population shifts will alter workforce makeup

LOVELAND – Despite trailing both by roughly 50,000 people just four years ago, Weld County is expected to outpace both Boulder and Larimer counties in terms of population by the year 2030, according to figures from the state’s demography office.

Much of that no doubt has to do with job growth in the oil and gas industry. But there are other factors at play as well that will affect how the counties’ workforces evolve in coming years, Colorado state demographer Elizabeth Garner said Tuesday. Garner was giving a keynote address at BizWest’s Bixpo Workforce Symposium at the Embassy Suites in Loveland.

Garner pointed out, for instance, that aside from the college-aged group — buoyed by the University of Colorado in Boulder County and Colorado State University in Larimer — Weld County’s population is proportionally younger than its two neighbors along the northern Front Range.

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And while Boulder and Larimer from 2000 to 2010 had a much larger net migration of college-aged residents than Weld, Weld solidly outpaced the other two counties in net migration from ages 30 to 65. From about age 28 to about age 75, Boulder County experienced negative net migration during that time period. And both Boulder and Larimer counties had significantly negative net migration of people in their late 20s and 30s, due somewhat at least in Boulder County to the high cost of housing for young families.

For business owners, Garner said the changing demographics provides food for thought as they look to the future.

“That’s important to understand. What kind of age workers do you have in your area?” she asked. “What kind of turnover will I be experiencing over the next decade?”

Of course, not even Weld County will be immune from the aging of Colorado’s population as baby boomers transition from the 45 to 64 age bracket into the 65-plus arena, a shift that will bring a good amount of change to the economy, Garner said.

Garner projects that Colorado’s 65-plus population will increase from 555,000 in 2010 to 1.243 million in 2030. While 45 to 64 year-olds are the highest-earning and highest-spending demographic, the 65-plus demographic has some of the lowest incomes and lowest spending on goods.

“Where do the 65-plus spend their money?” Garner asked. “Those are the occupations that will be growing fast. … They’re ready to un-stuff. So thinking about less goods, more services is really where a lot of our occupations are going to be growing.”

The age shift, Garner said, is something that will affect the workforce in every state given that the age groups directly behind the baby boomers are smaller in number. It will lead to a situation where everyone, she said, is battling for the best and brightest.

She said there will be questions about whether younger people who are right now un- or under-employed are able to accelerate their careers as the baby boomers move out of the workforce.

“The assumptions we held over the last 20 years are really changing dramatically in terms of our understanding of the labor force,” Garner said.