The Great Recession crawling to a close?

Elsewhere in this issue, regional economist John Green says Northern Colorado should finally expect to see something resembling an economic recovery in the coming months, and he has the figures to prove it.

But economic figures tell us that The Great Recession of the 21st century officially ended in June 2009. So why was 2010 such a lousy year for most local businesses?

Economists explain that by pointing out how the Colorado economy tends to run counter to national economic cycles. We go into the tank later and crawl out after other regions are already home and dry. In the best of times, our tank is shallower than most, as well.

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Economists will also point out that since the tech bust at the beginning of the century, the state has cultivated a more diverse economy — mostly of necessity, granted, but we took the hint. Colorado consistently ranks in the top 10 among states poised for success in the new “knowledge” economy and entrepreneurship, while locally strong sectors agriculture, manufacturing, mining and tourism remain our top industries.

Such facts and figures are helpful to economists and planners and editorial writers, but what does “economic recovery” mean to the average business owner and his or her employees? Restaurants packed on what should be a slow holiday weekend? Construction finally beginning on projects that have sat idle since the original developer went bust? Firms feeling secure enough in future orders to fill positions that have been open for months? Workers feeling secure enough to change jobs voluntarily?

If any of this counts, we are happy to report that this recent Memorial Day presented at least one anecdotal example — and in some cases, several — that the recovery is, indeed, picking up speed in our region.

For most people, “the economy” begins and ends with how much money is left at the end of the month, after all the bills are paid — and what they had to do to get it. It’s all about employment or lack thereof balanced with the price of necessities. The rest moves quickly into the realm of the theoretical.

As the economy picks up and more people go back to work, the unemployment rate initially tends to go up as formerly “discouraged” workers come in from the cold. The state’s rate peaked in February, statistics tell us, and employers have added 2,200 jobs in April. These numbers could point the way to our gradually warming future.