Wells: 2026 — The year we choose life over interest rates

While the last two years saw the Northern Colorado residential real estate market holding its breath in a tense standoff with interest rates, 2026 is poised to be the year of the Great Exhale. As we close the book on 2025, the data confirms a market that has found its footing. The story of 2025 was not about price spikes but rather the return of mobility. Across our four major markets, the number of homes sold had healthy growth in 2025 to prove that the lock-in effect is finally thawing.

Windsor led the charge of the major markets with a 9.4% jump in detached homes sold in 2025. Fort Collins followed with a healthy 7.2% increase with 1,800 sold, while Loveland with 1,111 sold and Greeley with 1,373 sold both saw detached homes sales climb by roughly 6%.

While activity heated up, prices kept their cool exactly as we projected. This stability is the new foundation for 2026. Fort Collins ended the year essentially flat at a median of $625,000, which is an increase of 0.3%. Windsor held steady at $600,000, up 0.02%. Loveland saw a slight correction by dipping just under 1% to $530,000. Greeley and Evans remained the affordability leader by seeing the strongest median price growth of 1.98% to finish at $437,688.

Here is what these numbers tell us about the year ahead:

Northern Colorado takes a healthy back seat

For more than a decade from 2011 through 2023, our region was a national headline for explosive appreciation. We are now entering a mature chapter. As the 2025 data shows, we are taking a back seat in appreciation growth. This is not a sign of weakness. It is a sign of health. After the pandemic boom, a flat or slowly growing market allows wages and incomes to catch up while restoring predictability. We are trading volatility for stability to create a safer environment for buyers to enter.

Choosing life over the lock-in

The dominant theme for 2026 is the end of the waiting game. The increase in home sales in 2025 proves that homeowners are done pausing their lives for 3% rates. We are seeing that dam break. Buyers and sellers are accepting the new interest rate environment in the low-to-mid-6% range and choosing to move based on life events like marriages, new jobs, and the desire to be near family rather than financial engineering. The discretionary move is back.

Trifecta for buyers

If you have been waiting to buy, 2026 offers a unique window of opportunity that did not exist two years ago. First, inventory is improving as sellers return to the market. Second, negotiation returns. The days of waived inspections are behind us, and sellers are now using concessions like rate buydowns and closing cost credits to attract buyers. Third, insurance is easing. A welcome change for 2026 is the stabilization of the insurance market. After two years of carriers pulling out or hiking premiums, we are seeing providers reemerge with competitive offerings to ease a major monthly cost for new owners.

New construction and the rise of density

Builders are having to adapt faster than anyone and the demand for affordability is clear. Expect builders in Northern Colorado to continue pivoting toward higher density projects like townhomes and paired homes. New construction will likely continue to be the price setter in 2026 by offering aggressive rate incentives like permanent buydowns that resale sellers struggle to match with concessions. 

The bottom line

After years of holding our breath, 2026 offers a return to rhythm. The data shows us that buyers are back, but they are disciplined. For sellers, the flat price trends in Fort Collins and Loveland are a signal that you must price strategically for condition, location, and competition rather than just momentum. For buyers, the market has finally swung back to offer choices, time to decide, and the leverage to negotiate.

Here is to a healthy, moving market in 2026.

Brandon Wells is president of The Group Inc. He can be reached at [email protected] or 970-420-6550.

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