Where’s the moisture? Farmers getting concerned

The spring of 2011 is off to a very dry start, as a low-snowfall winter and mostly dry March is making the April start of planting season a bit worrisome.

“Conditions are pretty dry this spring so far,´ said Keith Maxey, interim director of the CSU Weld County Extension Service. “We’re getting to the point where we really do need some moisture.”

March, usually one of the region’s moist months, was a bust this year. Less than a quarter of an inch of precipitation fell, and by the end of the month only 1.17 inches of precipitation had been recorded in Fort Collins for the first three months of the year, compared to 2.16 inches in a normal year.

Snowfall is even lower than normal. By the end of March, a total of 21.7 inches had fallen during the season compared to 40 inches in a normal year.

While winter wheat fields are starting to turn green as new shoots break through the ground, the crop could be in danger if some precipitation doesn’t fall soon.

“There’s a fair amount of dryland wheat in eastern Weld County especially that’s going to need some moisture to make it,” Maxey said.

Warm temperatures and windy conditions that have dominated the first three months of the year are teaming up to dry out fields in the region just as planting time is arriving.

Maxey said the dry conditions are beginning to affect many aspects of agriculture. “Just looking forward, hay and pasture fields are just coming out of dormancy and they’re really pulling the moisture out of the soil quickly,” he said.

Maxey said corn and other crop farmers can go ahead and plant without first getting some moisture into the soil, but it’s not the best scenario. “It’s always better to have that moisture in the soil when it gets planted so it can germinate and get going,” he said.

Plenty of snowpack

Nolan Doesken, state climatologist, said the winter of 2010-11 has been unusual in that plenty of snow has been falling in the high mountains but very little in the flatlands.

“This is a fascinating year because the mountains – week in and week out – continue to get hit by one Pacific storm after another and their snowpack continues to build,” he said.

“It’s going to be an excellent year for water coming out of the mountains. From a surface water point of view, it’s looking pretty nice.”

Doesken said the snowpack – which is already ranging from 120 percent at Bear Lake to 141 percent higher up in the Mummy Range – even holds some possibility of spring flooding if it were to melt too quickly.

Doesken said the problem is on the plains, where farmers are increasingly looking to the skies and hoping for some rain or snow.

“What has been lacking has been any big winter storms east of the mountains,” he said. “It’s still spring, and the snow season here does extend almost through the month of May, so the game isn’t over yet.”

Not only are the mountains loading up with snow for summer irrigation, but flatland reservoirs are generally almost full. While that is a good thing, continuing dry conditions could cut into those supplies rapidly.

Doesken notes that the timing of moisture falling on the Front Range is a notoriously fickle thing. Last year, for example, the region was flush with moisture after a particularly snowy winter and spring. However, in 1999 Doesken said the region was dry through April “but in 11 days we had more moisture than we could shake a stick at.”

Doesken said Larimer County is currently experiencing a “moderate drought” and the foothills and high country are considered “abnormally dry.” But conditions are rapidly worsening in eastern Weld County, where a “severe drought” is beginning to be felt.

Still, it’s too soon to panic and think about selling the farm, according to both Maxey and Doesken.

“We are vulnerable right now, and the rains don’t always show up,´ said Doesken. “If we have just an average spring, we may not have enough surface water.”

Doesken said the next several weeks – culminating in the first half of June – will tell the tale as to whether this will be a wet or dry year for farming and ranching. “For Northern Colorado below 8,000 feet, this is our wet season.”

“I don’t think we’re past the point of no return,” adds Maxey. “We just have to be a little bit patient. If we can get something in April we could be right on track.”

Steve Porter covers agribusiness for the Northern Colorado Business Report. He can be reached at 970-232-3147 or at sporter@ncbr.com.

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