Colorado new business filings plummeted as COVID-19 outbreak spread
DENVER — With businesses shuttered along commercial streets in every Colorado community, no one needs a government report to recognize that the economy is struggling under the weight of the COVID-19 crisis.
But the Colorado Secretary of State Quarterly Business and Economic Indicator report, released Wednesday and produced in conjunction with University of Colorado Leeds School of Business Research Division, highlights just how steep the drop has been in the few short weeks since the outbreak arrived in Colorado in mid-March.
New business filings, which totaled 33,848 in the first quarter, dipped 5.6% compared to the first quarter of 2019.
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The decline in new business filings was especially steep in March, falling 16.2%, 31.1%, and 33.6%, respectively, over the final three weeks of the month.
“Even though the pandemic hit Colorado in March, [near the tail end of Q1], its profound impact can be seen in the first quarter,” Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold said.
While the COVID-19 crisis certainly slammed the brakes on new business filings, the momentum actually began slowing in February prior to the virus’ mass outbreak in Colorado.
“The economy was weakening even before the coronavirus put the kibosh on it,” CU Business Research Division executive director Richard Wobbekind said.
Dissolutions were up 6% year-over-year, a figure that may not capture the full extent of business shutdowns in the quarter. “Some businesses do not voluntarily dissolve without delay, and dissolution filings often lag the actual business dissolution,” according to the report.
To further hammer home the degree of economic disruption, the report notes that trademark filings were down 15.7% in Q1 compared to the same period in 2019.
“The deteriorating economy in March will likely bring Q1 GDP negative, and estimates for Q2 point to a post-WWII record decline,” Griswold said. The leading factor contributing to the decline is the drop in consumer spending and consumption.
Despite the litany of troublesome figures, renewals of existing licenses were up 7.8% year-over-year in the most recent quarter.
Business leaders do not expect an immediate economic turnaround.
The Leeds Business Confidence Index, a CU survey of how optimistic or pessimistic business owners feel about the Colorado economy, hit the lowest point in its 17-year history ahead of the second quarter of 2020.
Colorado economic data, from new businesses filings to the confidence index, “was never [before] impacted by a direct shutdown of the economy,” Wobbekind said.
But looking ahead to the third quarter, “sentiment rebounds modestly, consistent with expectations of an improving economy in the third quarter,” according to the economic indicators report.
“While the current situation is pretty dire, just how dire is going to depend on how long the pandemic continues, how long businesses remain shuttered and how quickly consumers are willing to go back and frequent those businesses,” Wobbekind said.
In response to this dire economic picture, Griswold called upon federal lawmakers to take additional measures immediately “to keep small businesses afloat.”
While the Business and Economic Indicators report does not provide regional or county-level analysis, the CU economists said Northern Colorado, with its comparatively high reliance on the oil and gas industry, is likely to be among the areas hit hardest by impacts related to both the COVID-19 outbreak and other, unrelated factors pushing down the price of oil.
“We are seeing many Colorado oil and gas companies lay off workers and allow rigs to lay idle,” Griswold said.
Building upon her remarks, Wobbekind said, “Obviously Weld County takes the biggest impacts because they’re such a large producer” of oil and gas. “But the silver lining for Northern Colorado is both Larimer and Weld counties have been extremely strong growth economies and have diversified over time with more professional business services, not just energy.”
