Employment picture: beauty up to the beholder

Cautious optimism once again colors the predictions of economic and employment experts for 2005.
Much has been lost ? in terms of jobs in the region ? over past years; but several bright spots light the horizon.
Northern Colorado shed 2,000 technology jobs between 2001 and 2003 and layoffs have continued into 2004 in that sector. Still, the region added some 2,500 jobs between July 2003 and July 2004.
Economists predict job growth in all business sectors for Colorado in 2005. Manufacturing, construction, health care and retail all are expected to add jobs in Northern Colorado.
Lew Wymisner, assistant director of the Larimer Workforce Center, looks for employment to pick up in 2005. How much? ?I don?t know to what degree.? Question marks in the areas of small business and government employment temper his optimism.
Regional economist John Green noted that the future for employment in 2005 in Northern Colorado could be looking up. Construction of a new regional hospital in Loveland?s Centerra development, located at U.S. Highway 34 and Interstate 25, likely signals a significant shift in the area economy, Green said.
?Economists talk about something called clustering,? Green said. Northern Colorado has essentially lost the economic advantage it had in the technology cluster that formed here in the late 1980s and 1990s. The dot-bomb and subsequent job losses have eroded that cluster in the region.
Health care looks to be the new cluster, however, Green said. A new hospital in Northern Colorado, along with expansion of existing hospital facilities in Loveland and Greeley, will boost demand in healthcare employment.
Medical Center of the Rockies in Centerra is expected to open in 2006. Banner Health?s project at McKee Medical Center in Loveland is expected to be completed in the spring of 2005. The region will also play host to a new Northern Colorado Rehabilitation Hospital, with the opening of that facility expected in the summer of 2005.
Meanwhile construction of these and other related health-care facilities is jump starting construction employment.
University of Colorado at Boulder economist Richard Wobbekind waxed optimistic in his 2005 forecast, saying that Colorado can expect job growth in every business sector in the year ahead. Wobbekind shared his view of the year ahead Dec. 6 at the annual Business Economic Outlook Forum presented by CU?s school of business and KeyBank.
?We expect the upturn that began in early to mid 2004 will accelerate into 2005 and that Colorado will experience job increases in all sectors,? Wobbekind said in a press release after the forum. ?The recovery is here. It just took longer to materialize in Colorado.?
Referring specifically to the Fort Collins/Loveland/Greeley area, Wobbekind said the outlook is bright with approximately five million square feet of new commercial, industrial and mixed-use construction projects under way.
J.J. Johnston, president and CEO of the Northern Colorado Economic Development Corp., looks for employment to grow in the region, as well. Johnston based that view, in part, on interviews with primary industry officials in the area.
If the economy continues to recover, these business operators said, they expect more than 1,000 new primary jobs to come from expansion opportunities for existing local businesses in the next 48 months.x09x09x09x09
There are other bright spots, Johnston noted. Two major lifestyle shopping centers are under way. Developer Poag & McEwen has broken ground on the 668,000-square-foot Shops at Centerra. In Fort Collins, meanwhile, plans are in the works for Bayer Properties? new 400,000-square-foot shopping center. Additional specialty and big-box retailers are on their way in the region as well.
Heska will move into its new, 60,000-square-foot facility in 2005 and Group Publishing is expected to complete its 48,000 square-foot expansion in the coming months as well.
The state of the economy and the way that businesses view it, not surprisingly, will play a large role in Northern Colorado employment numbers in 2005.
A lot depends, Wymisner said, on how small business owners perceive the economy. ?The small employer makes up a large portion of our employment base. Eighty percent or so of the employers in Larimer County employ less than 10 to 20 people.?
In a down economy, small businesses tend to add overtime hours to the schedules of existing staff members rather than hiring additional workers. ?They?re going to take the most convincing that the economy has turned around.?
Government ? federal, state and local ? is another major employer in the Northern Colorado region, Wymisner said. It?s an area that Wymisner said could still struggle in the months ahead.
?That?s an important sector in Larimer County and I don?t know if the other shoe has dropped yet in the government sector.?
With an eye to future employment and economic stability, the Northern Colorado Economic Development Corp. has announced a comprehensive effort to build employment opportunities in the region into the future. Dubbed Leadership 2010, it will draw together leaders from business, education, government and the media on a regular basis to discuss issues, opportunities, marketing and business retention and expansion in Northern Colorado, Johnston said.
Johnston said the effort is designed to identify obstacles to business expansion and recruitment.
?We want to convene this leadership council between those four industry segments to really address, at a regional level, what these challenges are that are impacting our ability to grow the economy.?