Weld leans toward more diverse economy

Once upon a time, agriculture was king when it came to defining Weld County?s economy.
Crops and livestock production continue to play a leading role in the county?s economy ? it is still ranked fifth in the nation in terms of agricultural output ? although down somewhat from years past when it was as high as third.
But there is much more to Weld County nowadays than corn, sugar beets and cattle. A healthy retail and commercial climate mixed with residential development countywide and the promise of new industries in the years ahead combine to make Weld County look strong enough to withstand any economic ripples or tidal waves that may ? or may not ? sweep the nation following the November presidential election.
?The diversity of the county is expanding,? said Keith Maxey, interim county director for the Colorado Cooperative Extension Service in Greeley. Need evidence? Farmland between U.S. Highway 85 and Interstate 25 is more often growing subdivisions and commercial properties than wheat and corn.
?To a lot of people, Weld County would like to keep its traditional farm roots,? Maxey said. ?There is value in open space and an ag economy ? particularly to the smaller towns. Their economies are dependent on how agriculture is doing.?
But Maxey said diversity could be a positive thing.
?Some of the biggest struggles for both those who want growth and those who want traditional agriculture is how do those two entities get along? Can you have a subdivision next to a feedlot? A dairy surrounded by small acreage units? Can you have whatever crop with people running tractors all hours of the day? As long as people are open-minded and know the area they?re moving into, it can work,? Maxey said, adding that it can still be contentious.
Agriculture will continue to be a viable industry in Weld County for generations to come ?as long as people can all cooperate in conserving water and developing new water projects,? he said. If agriculture does expand, Maxey said it would be to the east of U.S. 85, and not to the west.
Northern Colorado economist John Green takes both a global and local look at the Weld economy. ?It?s an election year,? Greens said. ?The party in power tends to pump the economy up. Hopefully, the pump keeps working through November. I?m not sure it will.?
?I see solid signs of a slowdown. You can?t cut taxes to help the economy. We already have the deficit out of control, and Iraq is just siphoning money. One of the things keeping the economy going is the huge defense spending. It?s time to be a little cautious.?

Growing faster than Larimer
Closer to home, Green said Weld County is growing at a faster rate than Larimer County because of more-attractive prices for new single-family homes. ?People are driving to Weld County where they can afford housing and working in Fort Collins or Loveland. That?s a major factor driving their growth,? he said.
He also predicted that increasing interest rates will bring a dramatic stop to real estate sales. The threat of higher interest rates is fueling the building flurry of builders and homeowners trying to beat the clock. ?That?s one of the factors driving the economy the rest of the year,? Green said.
Weld will weather whatever economic storms are brewing, Green said, because agriculture ?goes no matter what.? The United States? border being closed to the import of Canadian cattle limits the amount of beef processed in Greeley, as does Japan?s border closure to American beef, including boxed-beef produced in Greeley ? all on account of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy, or mad cow disease.
Susi Sewald, executive director of the Colorado Sugarbeet Growers Association based in Greeley, said farmers are looking forward to a good year ?if we can solve the water problems we?re having.? Some farmers opted out of raising sugar beets last year, which turned out to be a good crop-producing year in spite of water shortages. More farmers are on board this year, she added.
That doesn?t mean the Greeley Sugar Factory, now operated by the growers, will reopen to process sugar beets in the fall. The factory was shuttered for the 2003-2004 campaign and will remain closed for the 2004-2005 season. Weld beets are instead processed in Fort Morgan.
?Weld County?s agriculture environment is a challenged industry,? said Marc Arnusch, president of the Colorado Corn Administrative Committee and owner and operator of a large farm in Prospect Valley east of Fort Lupton. ?We have a lot of things going on. We have the drought, regulations on many of the irrigation wells and ability to pump dependent on augmentation of the Platte River Valley, and dwindling numbers of cattle in feedlots.
?The uptick is in corn market price. We still have sugar and vegetable crops, and lastly we?re seeing an increase in ethanol production.? A new ethanol plant outside of LaSalle is expected to be up and running by spring 2005.
What is not known, Arnusch said, is whether the plant will use locally grown corn or import it from nearby states. Colorado, Arnusch noted, is a net deficit state, meaning that it uses more corn than it grows.

Seed sales are up
Corn acreage has decreased due to limited irrigation water and to development, especially along U.S. Highway 85, Arnusch said. Yet he noted that seed sales are up for the year. Farmers are finding corn prices more attractive than those for malted barley, dried beans and sugar beets and are choosing to instead plant corn for silage and corn for feed.
Until the end of April ? when spring storms began to make their way across the state ? farmers were wary of the coming growing season. ?The optimism level is beginning to rise,? he said. ?A couple weeks ago, it looked very meager. Now there?s enough moisture to at least emerge a crop.?
Banker Fred Bauer recalls how one rancher told him, ?We?re hitting our knees every morning? to pray for moisture. The rancher went on to tell how he had been digging post holes and not once saw a hint of moisture in the soil.
But Bauer, who has been a part of the Weld banking scene for 30 years and is now president of Farmers Bank in Ault, said the county ?can survive a bad anything.? What?s happened, he said, is farmers have learned to become more efficient, just like any other business proprietor. ?The farmers who are left are tough and good managers.?
And where once Weld?s small towns were home to those who worked on farms, they are now home to a growing field of commuters who like the small-town lifestyle and the proximity to employment throughout Northern Colorado and the Denver/Boulder metro area.
Greeley?s new ability to draw large national retailers ? Kohl?s, Ross, Outback, Red Robin and a Cinemark have opened in the last few months ? will continue to make it hard for the Eatons, Johnstowns and LaSalles to draw outside retail ventures. ?They don?t have the rooftops to get the volume,? he said.
Bauer predicted that convenience stores and junior versions of the large grocery chains would continue to service Weld?s small towns.
Mark Bradley, broker/partner with Realtec Commercial Real Estate Services Inc. in Greeley, said Greeley and the surrounding area are experiencing a ?generally strong? economy. Vacancies, save for the former Hewett-Packard and State Farm buildings, are lower than many expected for this year. He noted that signs of companies increasing productivity are resulting in a need for those businesses to expand both in employment base and square footage. ?We?re starting to see that path start,? Bradley said.
Lease activity is negligible as interest rates continue to make building ownership a smarter choice for business owners. ?People who might be in the lease market are buyers instead,? he said.
Though Weld is getting more attention from outside businesses and industries, the high commercial/industrial vacancy rates in Denver continue to be a huge drawing card for those choosing to relocate to Colorado. ?In some areas, we compete well,? Bradley said, such as providing a lower cost-of-living. ?But we don?t have the broad base of employees you have in Denver. You need to have a reason for wanting to be in Greeley or Weld.?
On the plus side is that Weld does provide a good quality of life and there are facilities that businesses could get up and running in relatively short order. One major focus of activity in the near future will likely be the Greeley Tech Center, now being developed on the city?s east side just south of Promontory.
?The EDAP folks are receptive to making life as easy as possible, especially to people who will create a base of employment,? Bradley said.

Land and labor
Ron Klaphake, president and CEO of the Greeley/Weld Economic Development Action Partnership, said Weld?s strengths include plenty of developable land and labor. ?We have a considerable amount of developable land along with workers,? he said. ?Our processes at the local and county levels for permits and so on are still reasonable in terms of timing as compared to other communities that have long processes in zoning and building permits. It?s an attractive option for companies looking for expansions.?
Klaphake said Weld?s diversity ? it?s home to 26 municipalities ? is a draw for a range of potential industries and businesses, including small machinery operations, food producers and businesses that complement the food industry. Owens-Illinois will soon begin construction on a new bottle plant in Windsor that is expected to deliver 1 billion bottles annually to the nearby Budweiser plant in Larimer County.
Weld also continues to benefit from the migration of Boulder County-based businesses. High Country Millworks is one of the latest to relocate to Weld.
Longmont-based Realtor Marv Dyer, who sells commercial lots west of I-25 in Weld County, said he has just inked deals with Hyek Chevrolet, Longmont Saturn Dealership and Valley Camper. ?Things are happening out here,? he said of the southwest quadrant of Weld. ?It?s a stable market. Everything is going pretty smooth.?
The overall residential market is ?in balance,? said Bruce Willard, broker with Austin & Austin in Greeley. ?I think we have transitioned out of the sellers market and we?re now in a buyer market.?

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