Real Estate & Construction  November 13, 2015

Kalinski: Boulder home prices hit all-time highs YTD

Price appreciation and sales of single-family homes across Boulder County surged in the first nine months of 2015, breaking records in all but one of the county’s major real estate markets.

“Countywide, real estate is stronger than ever,” said D.B. Wilson, manager and Realtor for Re/Max of Boulder. Total Boulder County sales through September of this year are 8 percent higher than a year ago at this time, with 2,745 properties sold.

But statistics and longer-term trends vary widely within the seven markets that comprise Boulder County, which makes a “hyperlocal” analysis more informative to home buyers, Wilson said.

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“The city of Boulder is the strongest market within Boulder County,” Wilson said. “From 2006 to 2012, the average sales price was actually up 5.4 percent and the median rose 5.7 percent, which was very unusual because real estate prices were dropping significantly across the country,” he said.

Since 2012, the average sales price grew 42 percent, to about $957,000, and the median price increased to $788,000. Year-to-date, sales are down about 6 percent, and 42 percent of properties are under contract, which is only 3.4 months of inventory.

“Five to seven months of inventory is considered a stable market; less than five months is typically a seller’s market,” Wilson said.

In Louisville, the average sales price added 31.5 percent since 2011 and is now slightly over $533,000, with a median of $520,000. Inventory is low, with only 50 listings of which 56 percent are under contract.

“While there are not a lot of homes to look at, there are probably fewer buyers now, so it’s a great time to look,” Wilson added.

Neighboring Lafayette saw a decline from 2006 to 2010 — average and median prices decreased 16 and 18 percent, respectively. But Lafayette has rebounded since 2010. The average price is up 42 percent, to more than $489,000, and the median is up 60 percent to just less than $444,000. Inventory is 47 percent lower than a year ago, and 61 percent of the 51 homes for sale are under contract.

Demand in Longmont is growing, and the city has slightly more inventory. The average sales price declined 16 percent from 2006 to 2011, but now has increased 39 percent, reaching $341,000 — the first time Longmont has surpassed $300,000. Even with the downturn, Longmont’s average sales price grew 17 percent from 2006 to 2015.

Longmont and Superior are among the more competitive markets: Year-to-date, the sale-to-list price ratio exceeds 100 percent. Inventory in Superior is low, with just 2.4 months of supply and the average sales price increased almost 36 percent to $566,000 with the median at $522,000.

In the Suburban Plains — unincorporated Boulder County east of U.S. Highway 36 — sales are up 18 percent for the first nine months of 2015, in contrast to the city of Boulder’s decrease of 6 percent. The average sales price dropped about $14,000 during the downturn, but has now increased 22.3 percent to $650,000.

Only the Suburban Mountain area has not returned to peak levels. In 2007, this area hit its high of $531,000 average sales price, which is now $492,000. “But, the number of sales is up 36 percent over the sales a year ago, and there are only 125 active listings, with 23 percent under contract. Last year at this time, it was nearly 200. That’s really significant, because during the downturn, less than 10 percent were under contract at any one time,” Wilson said.

“Going forward, we expect appreciation to continue,” Wilson said.

Inventory, interest rates and unemployment are all low, Wilson noted.  “Jobs are being created, people are coming in, and they want housing,” Wilson said. “During the downturn, it’s reported that a million people moved to the Colorado, mostly along the Front Range, so this pent-up demand is going to continue for a while.”

Jay Kalinski is broker/owner of Re/Max of Boulder. He can be reached at jaykalinski@remax.net.

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