Economy & Economic Development  April 27, 2007

Retail sales action shifts to growing Weld County

Historically playing second fiddle to Larimer County when it comes to retail sales, Weld County is closing the gap and could even overtake its neighbor by the end of the decade.

And with the help of some rapidly growing cities in Weld’s west and southwest regions, that prospect is more than just a possibility.

Figures obtained by the Business Report from the Colorado Department of Revenue show that, from 2000 through 2006, total retail sales in Larimer County grew from $5.36 billion to $6.67 billion, a 24 percent increase.

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During the same period, retail sales in Weld County grew from $3.2 billion to $5.47billion, a 71 percent increase.

Maury Dobbie, executive director of Larimer County’s Northern Colorado Economic Development Corp., said the numbers were surprising but added she did not mind hearing that Weld’s retail sales were growing faster.

“What’s good for Weld County is good for Larimer County,” she said. “It’s probably a good indication of the overall strength of our economy regionally.”

When it comes to the biggest cities in each county – Fort Collins in Larimer and Greeley in Weld – the growth comparisons are dramatic. From 2000 through 2006, Fort Collins experienced 10 percent growth while Greeley recorded a 35 percent increase.

For cities located entirely within Larimer County, Loveland – home to the Centerra development – had the biggest retail growth for the period, going from $1.26 billion to $1.78 billion, a 41 percent increase. Estes Park recorded a 17 percent increase, rising from $193.6 million in 2000 to $227.1 million last year.

Weld sales soar

But it’s in Weld County that the retail sales growth really soars. For cities entirely within Weld County, Fort Lupton leads the pack with a 126 percent increase, more than  doubling its retail sales from $141.5 million in 2000 to $319.5 million in 2006.

Frederick – one of the tri-cities along with Firestone and Dacono in southwest Weld County – recorded 88 percent growth, with sales of $144.7 million in 2000 and $272.4 million in 2006.

Two other cities that lie mostly in Weld County but have smaller portions in Larimer County also reported scorching retail sales growth. The combined county sales for Windsor jumped 92 percent during the 2000-2006 period, rising from $156.97 million to $301.23 million.

But the town of Johnstown holds the highest retail sales growth in the region when both county portions are combined. Sales of $39.55 million in 2000 rose to $151.81 million in 2006, a whopping 284 percent increase.

Roy Lauricello, town administrator, said he was amazed that retail sales in Johnstown have been climbing so dramatically. “I know there’s been a lot going on, but that’s phenomenal,” he said. “We’re very happy to hear that.”

Population boom

Lauricello said Johnstown’s rapid growth in recent years is obviously having an impact on retail sales. “From 2000 our population has been increasing about 12 to 13 percent per year, so I’m sure there’s some correlation between the two.”

Johnstown’s population has multiplied about three times in the last seven years, from about 3,500 in 2000 to about 8,500 today.

John Franklin, town planner, said the rapid increase in retail sales is likely due in part to Johnstown’s aggressive annexation program, which has added large swaths of land to the town, particularly along Interstate 25.

Martin Shields, professor of economics at Colorado State University, said he’s not surprised that Weld County is seeing a retail sales boom.

“It’s not too tough to see what’s causing that,” he said. “We’ve seen a substantially faster population growth in Weld County than in Larimer County in that period, and people want to shop near where they live.”

Shields noted that while Larimer County still has more residents, it’s slowly giving way on that statistic, too. From 2000 to 2005, Shields said Larimer gained about 20,500 people while Weld County added about 48,000.

“There’s just so much activity in southwest Weld right now,” he said. “It’s almost becoming a suburb of Denver.”

Larry Burkhardt, executive director of Upstate Colorado Economic Development which has a Weld County focus, said a rapidly-growing retail sector in the county would not hurt efforts by his organization to lure primary employers to a prosperous area.

“I would have to say that’s a very good sign,” he said. “It all works together, you bet. Certainly the numbers are moving in a direction we’d like to see them move rather than the converse.”

Fort Collins losing edge?

Another interesting fact from the Department of Revenue reports: In 2000, Fort Collins’ retail sales alone totaled $3.23 billion compared to $3.22 billion for the whole of Weld County.

John Green, an independent regional economist who advises the Business Report, said Fort Collins – long the economic dynamo of the region – began to lose its economic edge when it started placing more emphasis on securing open lands than on annexing land that would reap future economic benefits.

“Fort Collins made the mistake of not annexing more land along the Interstate, and that’s killing the tax base,” he said. Green noted that a strong retail sales tax base is critical for maintaining city services and the quality of life the city has so long touted.

Green said Loveland took a different tack in the last decade, particularly with respect to the Centerra development by McWhinney Enterprises along I-25 in east Loveland. Begun at the end of the 1990s, Centerra has steadily expanded Loveland’s retail base, and that jumped dramatically in late 2005 when the Promenade Shops at Centerra opened on the east side of the Interstate.

And that trend will continue, as McWhinney Enterprises recently announced it will open Grand Station – a 1 million-square-foot retail center just east of the Promenade Shops – in the fall of 2009, and new owners plan major upgrades at the Outlets at Loveland across the highway.

Green sees Grand Station as a magnet for the region, drawing new retailers in and giving Larimer County another boost.

“I think it’ll preclude a lot of other retail development in the region for a while,” he said.

Historically playing second fiddle to Larimer County when it comes to retail sales, Weld County is closing the gap and could even overtake its neighbor by the end of the decade.

And with the help of some rapidly growing cities in Weld’s west and southwest regions, that prospect is more than just a possibility.

Figures obtained by the Business Report from the Colorado Department of Revenue show that, from 2000 through 2006, total retail sales in Larimer County grew from $5.36 billion to $6.67 billion, a 24 percent increase.

During the same period, retail sales in Weld County grew from $3.2 billion to…

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